How we cleaned the data
Ben Stevens exported 9,511 "zero registered voter" household addresses from VoteBuilder across 8 Area 4 municipalities. We cross-referenced every address against the PA Full Voter Export to classify each into one of three categories.
| Category | Count | % | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Confirmed no match | 6,767 | 71.1% | No active registered voter at this address - genuine targets |
| Ambiguous base match | 2,179 | 22.9% | A registered voter lives at the same building/street address but a different unit - needs QA sampling |
| Active conflict | 565 | 5.9% | An active voter IS registered at this exact address - exclude from outreach |
Additionally, 1,287 addresses (13.5%) are in Shannondell, a 55+ CCRC community in Lower Providence. These are separated into their own program - institutional and mail outreach rather than door-knock canvassing. The 5,549 clean targets are confirmed-no-match addresses minus Shannondell and active conflicts.
Where to knock first
The streets that matter
The full picture
| Precinct | Municipality | Clean | Reg. voters | D% | R% | D-R gap | Tier |
|---|
Shannondell needs a different playbook
1,287 addresses in one 55+ community
Shannondell is a continuing-care retirement community (CCRC) in Lower Providence Township, entirely within precinct Lower Prov 3-4. Of its 1,287 addresses in the VoteBuilder export, 1,218 are clean targets with no active voter match, and 69 are active-voter conflicts.
The precinct itself leans D+171 (48.7% D, 39.4% R) with a remarkable 87.7% turnout in the 2024 general election. This is a high-value registration environment, but it requires institutional outreach: mail campaigns, community-room tabling, and coordination with facility management rather than ordinary door-knock canvassing.
This is the single largest concentration of unregistered households in Area 4, but it needs a different playbook.