Registration Targets - Area 4 Democrats

The Story

How 9,511 addresses became ~3,900 effective canvass targets - and which precincts to walk first

Registration Target Analysis

Step through the narrative

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The full picture

All 34 precincts across 8 municipalities, sorted by tier then effective target count

Precinct	Municipality	Raw	Eff	Reg. voters	D%	R%	D-R gap	Tier

Street-level drilldown

Top streets within each Tier 1 precinct - the actual walk-turf planning data

383 special outreach addresses across senior communities

After correcting address parsing (VoteBuilder encodes building numbers as "BLDG" tokens that the voter file doesn't use), most senior-community addresses now match registered voters in the building. The 383 remaining unmatched senior addresses are units with no same-base-address FVE voter at all. Of these, 254 are at Shannondell (Lower Prov 3-4, D+171) and 129 are across Worcester Township's senior facilities (Founders Village, Holly House, Laurel House, Cardinal Crest).

These addresses require institutional outreach - mail campaigns, community-room tabling, and coordination with facility management - rather than ordinary door-knock canvassing.

How we weighted the data

Ben Stevens exported 9,511 "zero registered voter" household addresses from VoteBuilder across 8 Area 4 municipalities. We built a street name normalization crosswalk (VoteBuilder and the PA voter file use different conventions - e.g., "Foxmeadow" vs "Fox Meadow", "5th" vs "Fifth", "Providence Forge" vs "Providence Frg") and cross-referenced every address to classify each into three categories: no active FVE match found (4,599 / 48.4%), ambiguous base match (4,232 / 44.5%), and active conflict (680 / 7.1%). Senior housing (383 remaining confirmed addresses) was separated for institutional outreach.

We then applied canvass-efficiency weights to each address based on its housing profile. Multi-unit addresses receive a modest discount (0.75x) reflecting lower expected contact rates from locked lobbies, higher turnover, and unit-address parsing uncertainty - not vacancy. Streets with 10+ addresses were individually profiled against the voter file for registration density and age demographics.

Data quality note: "No active FVE match" means we could not find an active voter registration at that address using our matching model. It does not mean the address is confirmed unregistered - some fraction are likely data matching failures (different address formatting between systems). During analysis, we discovered and corrected multiple systematic matching artifacts. The effective target count (~3,900) should be treated as an estimate with a confidence range, not a precise count.

Category	Weight	Example streets
Residential	1.0x	Mill Grove Dr, Taylor Way, Brooke Dr
Mixed unit	0.80x	Cameron Ct, Walnut St, W Ridge Pike
Occupied apartment	0.70x	Bayless Pl, Cardin Pl, Roboda Blvd
High vacancy apt	0.35x	Foxmeadow Dr (176 unreg, 38 reg)
Vacant apt	0.25x	Foxmeadow Cir (119 unreg, 0 reg)
Senior housing	Special	Shannondell Dr, Holly House

Data: VoteBuilder export (April 26, 2026) cross-referenced against PA Full Voter Export (June 8, 2026 vintage).