How we cleaned the data
Ben Stevens exported 9,511 "zero registered voter" household addresses from VoteBuilder across 8 Area 4 municipalities. We cross-referenced every address against the PA Full Voter Export to classify each into one of three categories.
| Category | Count | % | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Confirmed no match | 6,767 | 71.1% | No active registered voter at this address - genuine targets |
| Ambiguous base match | 2,179 | 22.9% | A registered voter lives at the same building/street address but a different unit - needs QA sampling |
| Active conflict | 565 | 5.9% | An active voter IS registered at this exact address - exclude from outreach |
Additionally, 1,477 addresses are in senior housing communities (Shannondell in Lower Providence and several facilities in Worcester). These are separated into their own program - institutional and mail outreach rather than door-knock canvassing.
We then applied building-level weights to each address based on its housing profile. Streets with 10+ unregistered addresses were individually profiled against the voter file to determine registration density, age demographics, and vacancy signals. Apartment complexes with high vacancy (unreg-to-registered ratio > 3:1) received a 0.35x weight; those with zero registered voters received 0.25x. Occupied apartments received 0.70x; mixed-unit townhome streets 0.80x; standard residential streets 1.0x. Senior housing communities (avg age > 70) were removed from canvass targeting entirely and routed to institutional outreach.
| Category | Weight | Example streets |
|---|---|---|
| Residential | 1.0x | Mill Grove Dr, Taylor Way, Brooke Dr |
| Mixed unit | 0.80x | Cameron Ct, Walnut St, W Ridge Pike |
| Occupied apartment | 0.70x | Bayless Pl, Cardin Pl, Roboda Blvd |
| Moderate vacancy apt | 0.50x | (none in current dataset) |
| High vacancy apt | 0.35x | Foxmeadow Dr (176 unreg, 38 reg) |
| Vacant apt | 0.25x | Foxmeadow Cir (119 unreg, 0 reg) |
| Senior housing | Special | Shannondell Dr, Holly House |
Where to knock first
The streets that matter
The full picture
| Precinct | Municipality | Raw | Eff | Reg. voters | D% | R% | D-R gap | Tier |
|---|
Senior housing needs a different playbook
1,477 special outreach addresses across senior communities
Shannondell is a continuing-care retirement community (CCRC) in Lower Providence Township, entirely within precinct Lower Prov 3-4. Its 1,285 addresses make it the single largest concentration of unregistered households in Area 4. The precinct itself leans D+171 (48.7% D, 39.4% R) with a remarkable 87.7% turnout in the 2024 general election.
Worcester Township adds another 163 addresses across four senior facilities: Founders Village, Holly House, Laurel House, and Cardinal Crest, with average resident ages ranging from 86 to 94. These addresses were identified through voter-file age profiling and removed from canvass targeting.
Combined, these 1,477 addresses are high-value registration environments that require institutional outreach: mail campaigns, community-room tabling, and coordination with facility management rather than ordinary door-knock canvassing.